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Forecasting: An Essential Introduction

by Jennifer Castle, Michael Clements and David Hendry Yale University Press
Pub Date:
04/2019
ISBN:
9780300244663
Format:
Pbk 240 pages
Price:
AU$42.99 NZ$43.47
Product Status: Out of stock. Not available to order.
Instructors
& Academics:
Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Jennifer Castle and Michael Clements provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world.


 


Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the greatly increased uncertainty after the Brexit announcement, along with the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for general readers interested in how economists forecast, practitioners new to the field and university students studying forecasting.
“For a non-technical guide to economic forecasting, there could be nothing better than Forecasting: An Essential Introduction by Jennifer Castle, Michael Clements and David Hendry. It is a crystal clear and intuitive explanation of what macroeconomic forecasts can and can’t do” – The Enlightened Economist

"Very welcome and much needed." — Philip Hans Franses

"A tidy and beautiful introduction to opportunities, pitfalls, and new directions in economic forecasting, reflecting the distilled wisdom of researchers at the frontier of their field." — Professor Francis X. Diebold, author of Elements of Forecasting

"It's a topsy-turvy world, but we all must have a view on where it is headed: from the business owner hiring a new employee to the renter becoming a homeowner. Of course, there are accurate forecasts and off-base ones. Forecasting may not turn you into Warren Buffet, but it will ensure that you avoid a forecasting blunder." — Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics and author of Financial Shock and Paying the Price

David Hendry is professor of economics, Oxford University and director of economic modelling, Institute for New Economic Thinking.


 


Michael Clements is professor of econometrics, Henley Business School.


 


Jennifer Castle is tutorial fellow, Oxford University and research fellow at Institute for New Economic Thinking.